Outside spending for 2016 hits $200m

This election cycle is flush with outside spending. As of today, super PACs, social welfare 501(c)(4) groups, trade associations, unions, parties and others (corporations, individuals etc) have spent $203.4 million this cycle. By this time in 2014, they’d spent less than half that much,  Center for Responsive Politics data show, and in 2012 the number was just $61.9 million.

Outside spending for February 12, All Cycles

Outside spending for and against Hillary Clinton by single-candidate super PACs dominates the 2016 Democratic presidential primary. 

Total outside spending for or against 2016 Democratic presidential candidates

Read More… http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2016/02/outside-spending-for-2016-hits-200m/

Super PACs Dominate Airwaves

Wesleyan Media Project – January 22, 2016 from December 15, 2015

Outside Spending Groups Air Over 80 Percent of Ads in GOP Primaries,
Almost All are Sponsored by Super PACs;

Big gaps between advertising and polls:
Pro-Bush ads more than double nearest GOP rival,
Pro-Cruz ads are rare and Trump noticeably absent,
Dark money fueling Rubio

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) December 15, 2015 – The volume of GOP presidential ads on the airwaves this election year is up by nearly 45 percent over the same period in 2011, but super PACs are even more dominant than they were in previous cycles. These groups sponsored just 1 percent of ads to this point in 2007 and over two-thirds of ads in 2011, but they sponsored 81 percent from January 1 through December 9, 2015 (a 71 percent increase over 2011 and a 12,000 percent increase over 2007).

“The fight for the nomination is no longer about candidates alone in this post-Citizens United era,” said Michael Franz, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, adding, “The support offered by a super PAC is now a pre-requisite – some might say the foundation – of a candidate’s TV strategy.”
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 Table 1: Advertising in GOP Presidential Primaries

YearCandidateOutside GroupTotal
Figures are from January 1 to December 9.
Numbers include broadcast television, national network and national cable television.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.
2007Ads Aired26,18629126,477
Row %98.9%1.1%100%
Cost$22.2M$137K$22.4M
2011Ads Aired9,58020,95730,567
Row %31.3%68.6%100%
Cost$3.0M$14.9M$17.9M
2015Ads Aired8,52735,74344,270
Row %19.3%80.7%100%
Cost$4.8M$52.2M$60.0M
% volume increase over 2011-11%70.6%44.8%
% volume increase over 2007-67.4%12,183%67.2%

In looking at the air wars on both sides of the aisle, the battle for the GOP nomination—with many more candidates than on the Democratic side—is about twice as intense, both over the cycle-to-date and in the last two weeks. Ads in the Democratic race total about 22,000 (with 4,500 ads between November 27 and December 9), compared to over 44,000 on the Republican side (with 8,000 in the last two weeks).
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  Table 2: Presidential Ad Spending and Airings

Since January 1Past Two Weeks
Figures are from January 1 to December 9, 2015.
Numbers include broadcast television, national network and national cable television.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.
Est. Cost
(in millions)
AiringsEst. Cost
(in millions)
Airings
Democratic13.421,9072.24,583
Republican57.044,2969.48,033
Total70.466,20311.712,616

 

 Jeb Bush and super PACs supporting his campaign have sponsored 15,750 ads on broadcast television, national network and national cable television since January 1, at a cost of almost $26 million. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has aired no ads, and Ted Cruz has benefited from only 457 ads since the start of the year (through December 9th).

“We’re seeing a big disconnect between advertising volumes and poll numbers on the Republican side so far this year. Bush and his super PAC have spent more than two and a half times his nearest Republican competitor, Marco Rubio, and yet he sags in the polls,” said Travis N. Ridout, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. “Meanwhile Donald Trump has aired zero ads and still stands atop the field in national polling, and Ted Cruz, who has aired 34 times fewer ads than Bush, is polling first in many Iowa polls.”

“It’s far too early to call for the death of TV advertising,” said Erika Franklin Fowler, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. “The Republican field is still crowded, which makes for a more challenging advertising environment. It is also important to remember that volume isn’t everything. All ads are not created equal; advertising content and the characteristics of the receiving audience matter and will condition their influence.”

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has double the ad total of her nearest competitor, Bernie Sanders (13,450 to 7,205). Martin O’Malley and former long-shot candidate Larry Lessig have aired very few ads.


Table 3: Cost and Count of Ads Favoring Each Presidential Candidate (including supportive groups)

CandidateEst. Cost
(in millions)
Airings
Figures are from January 1 to December 9, 2015.
Numbers include broadcast television, national network and national cable television.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.
Bush25.715,750
Clinton8.213,450
Sanders4.27,205
Rubio9.86,596
Carson1.54,666
Perry0.93,441
Jindal2.73,413
Kasich6.33,127
Christie5.72,718
Graham1.21,008
Cruz0.3457
Walker0.6441
Gilmore0.3419
Huckabee0.3417
Lessig0.1362
O’Malley0.2197
Paul0.4127
Pataki0.03101
Fiorina0.188
Biden0.320

http://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases/super-pacs-dominate-airwaves/

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